Serie B · Matchweek 20
Cesena
CES
Modena
MOD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena31%
Draw29%
Modena40%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.34
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession54%
31%Territory49%
26%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.07
6.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cesena, 3 for Modena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.