Serie B · Matchweek 19
Südtirol
SDT
Carrarese
CAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol37%
Draw28%
Carrarese36%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.36
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–28.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
29%Territory35%
23%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.1%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Südtirol, 4 for Carrarese.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.