Serie B · Matchweek 19
Modena
MOD
Palermo
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena44%
Draw28%
Palermo28%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.13
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession52%
49%Territory37%
21%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness4.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Palermo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.