Serie B · Matchweek 19
Mantova
MAN
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova53%
Draw25%
Padova22%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.08
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Padova get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession40%
33%Territory39%
19%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.11
7.0%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.