Serie B · Matchweek 18
Padova
PAD
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova30%
Draw27%
Cesena43%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.51
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Cesena will have the ball; Padova will not mind.
40%Possession49%
39%Territory31%
37%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.10
7.2%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Padova, 3 for Cesena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.