Serie B · Matchweek 18
Padova
PAD
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova28%
Draw27%
Cesena45%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.51
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession42%
34%Territory36%
18%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Padova, 4 for Cesena.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Padova
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.