Serie B · Matchweek 18
Empoli
EMP
Sampdoria
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Empoli40%
Draw29%
Sampdoria31%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.12
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession49%
32%Territory42%
38%From set plays27%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Empoli, 3 for Sampdoria. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.