Serie B · Matchweek 18
Carrarese
CAR
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Carrarese40%
Draw28%
Avellino32%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.21
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–08.7%
- 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Carrarese get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
34%Possession42%
38%Territory28%
43%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Carrarese, 3 for Avellino. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.