Serie B · Matchweek 18
Ascoli
ASC
Modena
MOD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ascoli26%
Draw28%
Modena46%
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.46
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Modena will not mind.
64%Possession54%
49%Territory49%
23%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.07
3.8%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ascoli, 3 for Modena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.