Serie B · Matchweek 17
Modena
MOD
Catanzaro
CAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena53%
Draw26%
Catanzaro21%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.00
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession59%
49%Territory46%
21%From set plays6%
0.07Chance quality0.08
5.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Catanzaro. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Catanzaro
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.