Serie B · Matchweek 17
Mantova
MAN
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova39%
Draw26%
Benevento35%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.44
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession56%
48%Territory41%
24%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.12
5.9%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Benevento.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Mantova
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.