Serie B · Matchweek 17
Mantova
MAN
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova54%
Draw25%
Benevento22%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.09
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession45%
33%Territory32%
19%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.06
7.0%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Benevento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.