Club Football Intelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 17

Sat, 12 Dec, 16:15 UTC

Cesena

CES

16:15 UTC

Palermo

PAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cesena35%

Draw24%

Palermo41%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.74

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

67%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%
1–28.5%
2–17.7%
2–27.0%
0–16.6%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession45%

36%Territory31%

26%From set plays14%

0.09Chance quality0.12

5.3%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cesena, 4 for Palermo.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Cesena

Cristian ShpendiFW2G 1A 0.82/90
Luca D'AndreaFW0G 1A 0.45/90
Dimitri BisoliMF0G 1A 0.33/90

Palermo

Dominic VavassoriFW3G 1A 1.37/90
HernaniMF1G 1A 1.01/90
Jacopo SegreMF1G 1A 0.85/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.