Serie B · Matchweek 16
Sampdoria
SAM
Modena
MOD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sampdoria27%
Draw30%
Modena44%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession54%
42%Territory49%
27%From set plays21%
0.11Chance quality0.07
4.4%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sampdoria, 3 for Modena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.