Serie B · Matchweek 16
Empoli
EMP
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Empoli40%
Draw31%
Südtirol29%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.02
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–012.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Empoli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
52%Possession48%
32%Territory35%
38%From set plays14%
0.07Chance quality0.06
5.5%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Empoli, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.