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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 16

Catanzaro

CAT

Virtus Entella

VIR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Catanzaro45%
Draw27%
Virtus Entella29%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.22

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

59%Possession54%
46%Territory41%
6%From set plays12%
0.08Chance quality0.10
4.2%Directness6.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Catanzaro, 3 for Virtus Entella. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.