Serie B · Matchweek 16
Carrarese
CAR
Pisa
PIS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Carrarese43%
Draw26%
Pisa31%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.38
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession58%
35%Territory40%
15%From set plays20%
0.12Chance quality0.14
5.0%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Carrarese, 4 for Pisa.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.