Serie B · Matchweek 16
Benevento
BEN
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benevento42%
Draw27%
Padova31%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.26
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.3%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession40%
32%Territory39%
34%From set plays37%
0.06Chance quality0.11
5.9%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Benevento, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.