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Serie B · Matchweek 16

Ascoli

ASC

Juve Stabia

JUV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ascoli39%
Draw28%
Juve Stabia32%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.23

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.5%
  • 019.3%
  • 008.6%
  • 218.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

64%Possession58%
49%Territory30%
23%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.07
3.8%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ascoli, 3 for Juve Stabia. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.