Serie B · Matchweek 16
Arezzo
ARE
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo27%
Draw25%
Cesena48%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.69
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession49%
33%Territory31%
29%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.10
9.6%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arezzo, 3 for Cesena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.