Serie B · Matchweek 16
Arezzo
ARE
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arezzo22%
Draw24%
Cesena53%
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.80
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–28.5%
- 0–06.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession42%
34%Territory36%
31%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.09
7.4%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Arezzo, 4 for Cesena.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.