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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 15

Hellas Verona

HEL

Palermo

PAL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hellas Verona29%
Draw24%
Palermo47%

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.84

Over 2.5

63%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 0–17.4%
  • 2–17.0%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

47%Possession45%
43%Territory31%
21%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.5%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Hellas Verona, 4 for Palermo.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.