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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 15

Padova

PAD

LR Vicenza

LRV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Padova42%
Draw27%
LR Vicenza31%

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.30

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–09.5%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 1–27.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

LR Vicenza will have the ball; Padova will not mind.

40%Possession49%
39%Territory42%
37%From set plays25%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Padova, 3 for LR Vicenza. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.