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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 15

Mantova

MAN

Ascoli

ASC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mantova36%
Draw27%
Ascoli36%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.41

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 0–18.8%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ascoli will have the ball; Mantova will not mind.

56%Possession66%
48%Territory42%
24%From set plays43%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.9%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Ascoli.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.