Serie B · Matchweek 15
Mantova
MAN
Ascoli
ASC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova46%
Draw26%
Ascoli28%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.22
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Mantova will not mind.
44%Possession64%
33%Territory49%
19%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.13
7.0%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Ascoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.