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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 15

Cremonese

CRE

Catanzaro

CAT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Cremonese32%
Draw26%
Catanzaro42%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.56

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 0–18.8%
  • 2–17.6%
  • 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession59%
42%Territory46%
13%From set plays6%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cremonese, 3 for Catanzaro. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.