Serie B · Matchweek 15
Avellino
AVE
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Avellino40%
Draw31%
Südtirol30%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.03
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession48%
28%Territory35%
17%From set plays14%
0.12Chance quality0.06
6.7%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Avellino, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.