Serie B · Matchweek 15
Avellino
AVE
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Avellino47%
Draw27%
Südtirol26%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.08
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
- 2–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession57%
38%Territory29%
32%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.10
8.0%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Avellino, 4 for Südtirol.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.