Serie B · Matchweek 14
Südtirol
SDT
Mantova
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol39%
Draw27%
Mantova34%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.36
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.2%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
29%Territory48%
23%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Südtirol, 4 for Mantova.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.