Serie B · Matchweek 14
Palermo
PAL
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palermo65%
Draw20%
Benevento15%
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.96
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.4%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession45%
37%Territory32%
26%From set plays34%
0.10Chance quality0.06
4.0%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palermo, 3 for Benevento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.