Serie B · Matchweek 14
Modena
MOD
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena64%
Draw22%
Padova14%
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.79
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Modena will have the ball; Padova will not mind.
54%Possession40%
49%Territory39%
21%From set plays37%
0.07Chance quality0.11
5.6%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.