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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 14

Catanzaro

CAT

Avellino

AVE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Catanzaro47%
Draw26%
Avellino26%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.15

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.7%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 2–07.8%
  • 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Catanzaro will have the ball; Avellino will not mind.

59%Possession42%
46%Territory28%
6%From set plays17%
0.08Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Catanzaro, 3 for Avellino. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.