Serie B · Matchweek 13
Palermo
PAL
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Palermo54%
Draw26%
Südtirol20%
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.92
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession48%
37%Territory35%
26%From set plays14%
0.10Chance quality0.06
4.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Palermo, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.