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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 13

Padova

PAD

Sampdoria

SAM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Padova34%
Draw29%
Sampdoria38%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.31

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–110.7%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 0–09.2%
  • 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sampdoria will have the ball; Padova will not mind.

40%Possession49%
39%Territory42%
37%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.11
7.2%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Padova, 3 for Sampdoria. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.