Serie B · Matchweek 13
Padova
PAD
Sampdoria
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova33%
Draw31%
Sampdoria36%
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.14
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.5%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 1–27.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession38%
34%Territory36%
18%From set plays26%
0.11Chance quality0.08
5.7%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Padova, 4 for Sampdoria.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Padova
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.