Serie B · Matchweek 13
Mantova
MAN
Arezzo
ARE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Mantova58%
Draw23%
Arezzo19%
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.07
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession43%
33%Territory33%
19%From set plays29%
0.10Chance quality0.07
7.0%Directness9.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Mantova, 3 for Arezzo. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arezzo
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.