Serie B · Matchweek 13
Cesena
CES
Ascoli
ASC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena48%
Draw26%
Ascoli26%
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.19
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli will have the ball; Cesena will not mind.
49%Possession64%
31%Territory49%
26%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.13
6.4%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cesena, 3 for Ascoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.