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Serie B · Matchweek 12

Südtirol

SDT

Cremonese

CRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Südtirol46%
Draw28%
Cremonese26%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.02

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1012.8%
  • 1112.7%
  • 009.8%
  • 219.0%
  • 018.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession54%
35%Territory42%
14%From set plays13%
0.06Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Südtirol, 3 for Cremonese. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.