Serie B · Matchweek 12
Südtirol
SDT
Cremonese
CRE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol46%
Draw28%
Cremonese26%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.02
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession54%
35%Territory42%
14%From set plays13%
0.06Chance quality0.12
4.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Südtirol, 3 for Cremonese. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.