Serie B · Matchweek 12
Sampdoria
SAM
Benevento
BEN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sampdoria50%
Draw26%
Benevento23%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.04
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–08.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession45%
42%Territory32%
27%From set plays34%
0.11Chance quality0.06
4.4%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sampdoria, 3 for Benevento. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.