Serie B · Matchweek 12
Modena
MOD
Juve Stabia
JUV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena54%
Draw27%
Juve Stabia20%
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.86
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession58%
49%Territory30%
21%From set plays21%
0.07Chance quality0.07
5.6%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Juve Stabia. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.