Serie B · Matchweek 12
Modena
MOD
Juve Stabia
JUV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena50%
Draw28%
Juve Stabia21%
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.87
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
59%Possession51%
39%Territory31%
22%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.7%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Modena, 4 for Juve Stabia.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.