Serie B · Matchweek 12
Catanzaro
CAT
Palermo
PAL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Catanzaro23%
Draw21%
Palermo56%
Expected goals
1.49 – 2.31
Over 2.5
72%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.0%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession45%
35%Territory31%
27%From set plays14%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Catanzaro, 4 for Palermo.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.