Serie B · Matchweek 12
Avellino
AVE
Mantova
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Avellino39%
Draw28%
Mantova33%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.26
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession44%
28%Territory33%
17%From set plays19%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness7.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Avellino, 3 for Mantova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.