Serie B · Matchweek 12
Avellino
AVE
Mantova
MAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Avellino44%
Draw27%
Mantova29%
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.19
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.2%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession56%
38%Territory48%
32%From set plays24%
0.07Chance quality0.10
8.0%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Avellino, 4 for Mantova.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.