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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 12

Ascoli

ASC

LR Vicenza

LRV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ascoli50%
Draw25%
LR Vicenza25%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.20

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.6%
  • 2–07.8%
  • 0–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ascoli will have the ball; LR Vicenza will not mind.

64%Possession49%
49%Territory42%
23%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ascoli, 3 for LR Vicenza. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.