Serie B · Matchweek 11
Pisa
PIS
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pisa50%
Draw25%
Südtirol26%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.25
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession57%
40%Territory29%
20%From set plays23%
0.14Chance quality0.10
3.3%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Pisa, 4 for Südtirol.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.