Serie B · Matchweek 11
Pisa
PIS
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Pisa37%
Draw29%
Südtirol34%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.21
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession48%
41%Territory35%
24%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.06
3.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Pisa, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.