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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 11

Mantova

MAN

Hellas Verona

HEL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Mantova44%
Draw26%
Hellas Verona30%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.29

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.3%
  • 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Mantova will have the ball; Hellas Verona will not mind.

56%Possession47%
48%Territory43%
24%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.9%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Mantova, 4 for Hellas Verona.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.