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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 11

Virtus Entella

VIR

Modena

MOD

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Virtus Entella29%
Draw29%
Modena42%

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.33

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.0%
  • 0–112.4%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession54%
41%Territory49%
12%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.07
6.2%Directness5.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Virtus Entella, 3 for Modena. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.