Serie B · Matchweek 11
Cesena
CES
Catanzaro
CAT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena58%
Draw21%
Catanzaro21%
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.27
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession48%
36%Territory35%
26%From set plays27%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.3%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Cesena, 4 for Catanzaro.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.