Serie B · Matchweek 11
Benevento
BEN
Avellino
AVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Benevento44%
Draw27%
Avellino29%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.21
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession57%
41%Territory38%
25%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.07
5.2%Directness8.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Benevento, 4 for Avellino.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 37 of 100 matches, not the full season.