Serie B · Matchweek 10
Südtirol
SDT
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol36%
Draw30%
Cesena34%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.18
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession49%
35%Territory31%
14%From set plays26%
0.06Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Südtirol, 3 for Cesena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.