Serie B · Matchweek 10
Catanzaro
CAT
Padova
PAD
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Catanzaro55%
Draw24%
Padova21%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.08
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–06.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Catanzaro will have the ball; Padova will not mind.
59%Possession40%
46%Territory39%
6%From set plays37%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.2%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Catanzaro, 3 for Padova. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Catanzaro
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.