Serie B · Matchweek 9
Padova
PAD
Südtirol
SDT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Padova34%
Draw30%
Südtirol36%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.19
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.7%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Südtirol will have the ball; Padova will not mind.
40%Possession48%
39%Territory35%
37%From set plays14%
0.11Chance quality0.06
7.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Padova, 3 for Südtirol. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.