Serie B · Matchweek 9
Cesena
CES
Empoli
EMP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Cesena47%
Draw27%
Empoli26%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.12
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.0%
- 2–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession52%
31%Territory32%
26%From set plays38%
0.10Chance quality0.07
6.4%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Cesena, 3 for Empoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.