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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Serie B · Matchweek 9

Benevento

BEN

Catanzaro

CAT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Benevento30%
Draw26%
Catanzaro44%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.59

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 2–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Catanzaro will have the ball; Benevento will not mind.

45%Possession59%
32%Territory46%
34%From set plays6%
0.06Chance quality0.08
5.9%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Benevento, 3 for Catanzaro. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.