Serie B · Matchweek 8
Südtirol
SDT
Sampdoria
SAM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Südtirol39%
Draw31%
Sampdoria30%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.02
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–012.4%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession49%
35%Territory42%
14%From set plays27%
0.06Chance quality0.11
4.8%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Südtirol, 3 for Sampdoria. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.