Serie B · Matchweek 8
Modena
MOD
Cesena
CES
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Modena52%
Draw26%
Cesena22%
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.97
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession49%
49%Territory31%
21%From set plays26%
0.07Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Modena, 3 for Cesena. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.