Serie B · Matchweek 8
Catanzaro
CAT
Ascoli
ASC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Catanzaro48%
Draw25%
Ascoli26%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.23
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ascoli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession64%
46%Territory49%
6%From set plays23%
0.08Chance quality0.13
4.2%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Catanzaro, 3 for Ascoli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 40 matches, not the full season.